Alright, so I went 1-3 on my divisional round picks and that doesn’t exactly speak volumes for my future career as a football clairvoyant. I followed conventional wisdom and if past divisional rounds have taught us anything, conventional wisdom is the sucker’s bet. Going back to 2006 at least one home favorite has been bounced by the road dog in a bizarre trend that seems to defy all statistical probability (2011 Packers; 2010 Patriots; 2009 San Diego; 2008 Carolina; 2007 Indianapolis; 2006 San Diego… again). Had I been aware of this streak I still probably wouldn’t have picked the Ravens to win outright, but calculating in the factor of an aging quarterback playing with gloves on for the first time in his 15-year career in sub-zero temperatures in high altitude AND the top-seed’s propensity for failure… some doubt might have crept into my mind. But enough excuses, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Pete Carroll’s crunch time defensive strategy are all dead to me. This is a new round and with fewer games, so at least I can’t be as badly wrong as I was last week.
Falcons v. 49ers
After watching Colin Kaepernick shred the Green Bay defense with a zone running scheme that appeared plagiarized right from the Redskins’ offensive playbook, I couldn’t help but think that Atlanta will struggle mightily in this game. The Atlanta defense is admirable but not that impressive, they thrive on turnovers and ball-hawking players in their secondary to make up for some of their glaring deficiencies. On the offensive side of the ball, Julio Jones and Roddy White have proven to be effective even when paired against athletic corners. However, I still think they rely too heavily on big plays in the passing game, which should be hard to come by against San Francisco’s disciplined defense.
More than just the gut appeal I have for San Francisco, there are several favorable match-ups for the 49ers that may prove to be a tipping point in the game. If I noticed anything in the Seattle game other than Atlanta’s bizarre medley of fans, it was the team’s inability to cover tight ends attacking the seams. Zach Miller, a castaway from the wayward Oakland franchise, torched the Falcons for over a hundred yards—most of it coming on poor coverage in the middle of the field. The 49ers have a much more athletic and versatile tight end by the name of Vernon Davis who could easily boast similar numbers. Not to mention factoring in the zone-read running game, it could be even more difficult for Atlanta’s linebackers to remain honest with the threat of Kaepernick scampering for 20-yard chunks on a whim.
That said, it isn’t impossible for Atlanta to win on Sunday, just highly improbable. Kaepernick’s success was mostly predicated upon the fact that the Packers were not prepared for the pistol offense, and Dom Capers had decided to spy Colin with a beefy linebacker who couldn’t keep up with Kaepernick if the quarterback was dragging a parachute. Provided Atlanta doesn’t employ the same imbecilic scheme they may be able to contain Kaepernick, frustrate him, and possibly force him into some errant throws that Asante Samuel can capitalize upon. Though Atlanta has had a very difficult time containing athletic quarterbacks, as I’m sure the image of Cam Newton somersaulting into the end zone has woken Mike Smith up in a cold sweat these last couple night. If the same thing occurs in the NFC championship game, Smith’s eyebrows might finally match his hair.
My prediction: San Francisco wins, so much for defying conventional wisdom.
Patriots v. Ravens
This the rematch the Ravens wanted. This is their chance to attest for all the things that went against them last year. Couple those story lines with the fact that Ray Lewis is playing his final season with a bionic left arm and you’ve got yourself one ratings bonanza… at least in the northeast market. The Patriots are favored by 9 and a half points and that’s supposed to be a really disrespectful number, except that from a Las Vegas perspective it’s a meaningless inflated spread. If the Patriots were favored by 10 that would be insulting, but 9 and a half is assuming that the highest scoring offense this season is likely only a touchdown better than a road team that’s coming off a marathon battle of attrition at incredibly high altitudes. It’s not that outrageous when you look at it in that light.
As I mentioned before, I didn’t have a good week picking the divisional round but I am proud of one caveat that I did get right. I felt that the only way the Ravens could win was if Torrey Smith and Joe Flacco had success on deep throws, which is exactly what happen. Unlike the prognosticators who seem to have this illusionary idea that the Ravens should attack the Patriots with a heavy dose of Ray Rice, I believe if they’re to be victorious it will have to be in a similar fashion as the Denver game. Torrey Smith is usually the fastest player on the field and if Aquib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard don’t find away to jam him at the line of scrimmage, he could very easily burn them for six. With that in mind, I also think that Ray Rice is important to the game, but not when grinding it between the tackles against a formidable front seven. The Ravens may have more success with their playmaking running back if they attempt to throw it to him out of the backfield, as the Patriots linebackers don’t cover well and Arian Foster was mildly effective against them in this exact type of role.
The Patriots no huddle gimmick is ultimately the deciding factor. If the Ravens can force first down incompletions or short run gains, the no-huddle becomes instantly less effective. However, if the Patriots remain in short yardage downs throughout the game, it’ll become very difficult for the Ravens to keep this one close.
My prediction: the Patriots eke out another victory and dedicate the game in memory of Manti Te’o’s girlfriend—and just when you thought I wouldn’t go there.
